Bank of England Base Rate: What’s Next?
- As of 19 June 2025, the Bank Rate is set at 4.25%, following cuts from 5.25% in August 2024 down to current levels through February and May 2025 HomeOwners Alliance.
- A Reuters poll (17–24 July) indicates markets expect two further 25 bp rate cuts—on 7 August and again in November 2025—bringing the rate down to around 3.75% by year‑end Reuters.
- Brokerages including BofA, Citi, Goldman and Morgan Stanley have revised their forecasts in light of sticky inflation (3.6% in June) and a cooling but not collapsing labour market. Predictions now range from cuts in August and November to an extended spike into early 2026 Reuters+6Reuters+6MoneyWeek+6.
- Market pricing currently reflects roughly an 80% probability of the first cut in August IFA Magazine+1The Times+1.
- As of 19 June 2025, the Bank Rate is set at 4.25%, following cuts from 5.25% in August 2024
Please read out guide on how bank of england movements correlate to mortgage rates
House Prices: Trends & Outlook
- Lloyds Bank expects house prices to get a 2–3% boost by the end of 2025 as borrowing becomes cheaper and credit conditions ease Sky News+1The Guardian+1.
- That said, London’s luxury and middle‑class market is showing signs of stagnation. High-end areas like Mayfair, Chelsea and Westminster have seen notable price declines and deal volumes dropping sharply in H1 2025. Softer activity and higher taxes (e.g. stamp duty, end of non-dom status) are weighing on sentiment MoneyWeek+7The Times+7Wikipedia+7.
- In contrast, suburban and regional markets such as Manchester, Cardiff and outer London neighborhoods are displaying more robust activity, partly due to affordability and shifting demand The Times.
Equity Markets & Wealth: How Are Investments Doing?
UK Markets (FTSE 100 & broader)
- The FTSE 100 broke above 9,000 points in mid‑July 2025, hitting an all‑time intraday high of 9,016.98 and has delivered around 12–12.7% gains so far in 2025—outpacing the S&P 500 in sterling terms (which is up ~0.5%) The Guardian.
- Gains are driven by mining, defence and banking stocks, as commodity prices stay firm and defensive sectors attract attention amid global uncertainty Hargreaves LansdownThe GuardianAJ Bellninetyone.com.
- Barclays now recommends investors remain overweight UK equities, citing China’s stronger-than-expected growth (5.3% H1 2025) boosting demand for UK exporters in sectors like mining, luxury goods and autos MarketWatch.
- Despite outperformance, the UK stock market trades at a significant valuation discount (~50% vs US benchmarks), which some investors see as an opportunity J.P. Morganninetyone.com.
Best Buy Tables
First Time Buyers Fixed Rates
| Lender | Rate | LTV | Rate Type |
| Nationwide | 4.85% | 95% | 2-year fixed |
| HSBC | 4.28% | 90% | 2-year fixed |
| Santander | 4.65% | 95% | 5-year fixed |
| HSBC | 4.29% | 90% | 5-year fixed |
Remortgage Fixed Rates
| Lender | Rate | LTV | Rate Type |
| TSB | 3.94% | 75% | 2-year fixed |
| Barclays | 3.79% | 60% | 2-year fixed |
| Santander | 3.96% | 75% | 5-year fixed |
| HSBC | 3.86% | 60% | 5-year fixed |
| Santander | 4.44% | 75% | 10-year fixed |
Buy to Let Purchase Rates
| Lender | Rate | LTV | Rate Type |
| HSBC | 3.84% | 75% | 5-year fixed |
| Kensington SPV | 4.59% | 75% | 5-year fixed |
PRODUCTS CORRECT AS OF 25.07.25
ALL MORTGAGE RATES ARE SUBJECT TO CREDIT STATUS, INCOME AND AFFORDABILITY.
ARRANGEMENT FEES AND EARLY REPAYMENT CHARGES MAY APPLY TO THESE PRODUCTS THESR ARE FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES OF RATES. PLEASE CONTACT AN ADVISER FOR A RECOMMENDATION TO MEET YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES. ALL VIEWS IN MARKET COMMENTARY ARE THE PERSONAL OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR.
YOUR HOME OR PROPERTY MAY BE REPOSSESSED IF YOU DO NOT KEEP UP REPAYMENTS ON YOUR MORTGAGE
